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美《大而美法案》新增3.3万亿美元赤字,短期市场动荡引爆美元崩盘隐忧
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 00:53

Group 1 - The likelihood of a dollar collapse in the short term is low due to the continued dominance of the dollar as a global reserve currency, accounting for approximately 58% of reserves and trade settlements [1] - The recent legislation increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, temporarily averting a debt default and maintaining market confidence in U.S. Treasury liquidity [1] - The Federal Reserve has effective tools to stabilize the currency if a dollar crisis arises, including interest rate hikes and balance sheet adjustments [2] Group 2 - Long-term systemic risks are evident, with a rising interest burden on national debt, which reached $684.1 billion in interest payments in the first seven months of the fiscal year 2025, becoming the second-largest fiscal expenditure [2] - Moody's predicts that if current policies remain unchanged, the national debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 134% by 2035, up from the current 98%, squeezing essential spending on defense and social security [2] - The dollar's credibility is increasingly undermined, as the dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3] Group 3 - The economic structure is becoming more polarized, with the wealthiest households seeing a 4.3% increase in after-tax income, while the bottom 20% only see a 0.6% increase [4] - The legislation is expected to result in 12 million people losing health insurance and an increase of $1,060 in annual mortgage interest, which could weaken consumer spending and hinder economic growth [4] Group 4 - Warning signals for a potential collapse include significant sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries by sovereign funds, an inversion of inflation and interest rates, and geopolitical conflicts accelerating the de-dollarization process [5] - The debate surrounding the legislation highlights conflicting viewpoints, with some arguing it could lead to a debt crisis, while others believe it may stimulate economic growth [6] Group 5 - While a collapse is not inevitable, systemic risks are increasing, with the legislation likely to accelerate a threefold crisis involving debt, trust, and social issues [7] - Key observation points include the outcome of the House's second vote, the potential for 10-year Treasury yields to exceed 5.5%, and changes in the proportion of U.S. Treasuries in foreign central banks' reserves [7]