上半年生猪养殖端仍存压栏时段 供应压力或再度后置

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in live pig futures prices are influenced by the rhythm of livestock sales and market sentiment, with a recent sharp decline following a rebound from low points [2] - The current strong performance of live pig spot prices is attributed to farmers holding back sales and the entry of secondary fattening, while rising temperatures slow weight gain [2][3] - In June, the average trading price of live pigs in China was 14.28 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 2.16% and a year-on-year decline of 21.81% [2] Group 2 - The overall trend of live pig prices from January to June was characterized by a decline, fluctuation, and subsequent drop, primarily due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025 [3] - Analysts expect a supply lag in the second half of the year, which may impact short-term supply and subsequently depress prices [3] - The current market anticipates price increases ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, providing some support for spot prices [3][4] Group 3 - The increase in pig prices in late June was linked to group enterprises reducing weights and some farmers resuming secondary fattening, despite a generally abundant supply [4] - The demand for pork is expected to decrease as the market enters a consumption lull, limiting the upward momentum for prices [4][5] - In July, there may be a reduction in supply due to some breeding enterprises having room for weight reduction, although most do not plan to reduce weights [5]