大危机！美元暴跌10%！特朗普是罪魁祸首还是背锅侠？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by a series of aggressive policies implemented by former President Trump, leading to a significant drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Trump's Policies - Trump's announcement of a 10% "Liberation Day Tariff" on 180 countries in April 2025 caused a 5% drop in the dollar index, marking a 16-month low, and significantly increased import costs for US businesses [1][2]. - The "Great and Beautiful" tax cut introduced in June resulted in a staggering $2.4 trillion fiscal deficit and national debt exceeding $36 trillion, with daily interest payments surpassing $3 billion [2]. - Trump's public pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell led to market expectations of at least five interest rate cuts by 2026, causing a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.28% [2]. Group 2: Erosion of Dollar's Pillars - The three pillars supporting the dollar's dominance—petrodollar system, military deterrence, and global trade—are showing significant cracks, with 18% of Saudi-China oil trade now settled in yuan [4]. - The US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's to Aa1, and foreign ownership of US debt has plummeted from 45% a decade ago to 28% [4]. - The rise of digital currencies poses a challenge to the dollar's technological supremacy, with the share of the dollar in global trade settlements dropping from 88% in 2022 to 78% [4]. Group 3: Capital Flight - A significant capital flight from Wall Street is observed, with €46 billion flowing into the German market in the first four months of 2025, marking the highest since the Russia-Ukraine war [6]. - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar, while gold prices have surged past $3,400 per ounce, with global central bank gold reserves reaching a 30-year high [6]. - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies mentioned "tariff impact" in their earnings reports, and the frequency of the term "recession" increased from 3% to 44% [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Warnings - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the 1973 collapse of the Bretton Woods system, noting that the dollar's decline is more severe now due to the erosion of trust in its three pillars [7]. - The article highlights the urgency of the situation, with hedge funds holding a record $10 billion net short position against the dollar, and institutional investors reducing their dollar holdings to a 20-year low [7].