美联储主席重申“等待观望”策略

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a "wait-and-see" strategy, indicating that the Fed will maintain policy stability and will not hastily adjust interest rates until there is clearer economic direction [1][3] - The Fed has kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, highlighting the complex interplay of inflation, employment, tariffs, and political pressure in the U.S. economy [1][3] - Core PCE price index remains at 2.6%, significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, despite a notable decline in inflation from its 2022 peak [3] Group 2 - The dual impact of tariffs on inflation presents a "double-edged sword" effect, where pre-importing inventory mitigates some cost pressures, but escalating tariffs could lead to price increases for end consumers [3] - The resilience of the labor market provides the Fed with room to remain cautious, with the unemployment rate holding steady at around 4.2% and wage growth still outpacing inflation [3] - Economic uncertainty due to tariff policies could disrupt this balance, with potential GDP growth declines of 0.25-0.75 percentage points as warned by former WTO chief economist [3] Group 3 - Political pressure on the Fed has intensified, with former President Trump publicly urging rate cuts and threatening Powell's position, yet Powell emphasized that policy decisions will be based on data rather than political influence [5] - Market expectations for rate cuts remain divided, with an 83.5% probability of maintaining rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September has risen to 66.2% [5] - The Fed's future policy direction is highly dependent on upcoming economic data, particularly the May PCE price index and June CPI figures, amidst increasing global economic uncertainty [5]