多国央行行长同台论道！鲍威尔甩锅特朗普，松口降息？

Core Viewpoint - The annual central bank meeting in Portugal highlighted the cautious stance of major central bank leaders in response to the economic impact of Trump's policies, with a notable signal from Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that without Trump's tariffs, the Fed might have already lowered interest rates, emphasizing that inflation trends are a key consideration in rate decisions [1]. - The Fed's recent "dot plot" suggested two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, with Powell previously stating the Fed was in a good position to remain observant [2]. - Powell's recent comments suggest a shift from the previously held view of considering rate cuts only in the fall [1]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Perspectives - ECB President Lagarde noted that while the Eurozone's inflation reached the 2% target in June, challenges remain, and geopolitical risks pose dual threats [4]. - The Bank of England's Bailey stated that monetary policy remains restrictive, with signs of a mild slowdown in the UK economy potentially influencing future decisions [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Ueda maintained a wait-and-see approach, indicating no immediate plans to raise borrowing costs [6][7]. - The Bank of Korea's Lee expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on economic growth rather than inflation, suggesting a careful approach to rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Dollar and Trade Policy - Central bank leaders agreed that the dollar's status as the preferred global reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, amidst ongoing trade negotiations by the Trump administration [9]. - Trump announced intentions to implement new tariffs by July 9, emphasizing a strict stance on trade relations with various countries [10].