邓正红能源软实力：墨西哥石油出口锐减 原油市场博弈从政策波动转向供需均衡

Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The current fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to a threefold soft power resonance: improved demand expectations from trade policy, concerns over OPEC's supply management failures due to production increases, and structural premiums caused by regional supply chain disruptions [3][4] - Oil prices are transitioning from "policy-driven volatility" to "supply-demand led equilibrium," but uncertainties surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline and the OPEC meeting will maintain a volatile price range between $65 and $70 per barrel [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the demand side, the summer driving season and a decrease in distillate oil inventories provide seasonal support, while Saudi Arabia may raise its August Official Selling Price (OSP) to further enhance demand [4] - On the supply side, OPEC's potential increase of 411,000 barrels per day contrasts sharply with Mexico's record low exports of 529,000 barrels per day, creating a supply dilemma [2][4] - The U.S. API reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 680,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1.92 million barrels, indicating a divergence in inventory trends amid strong seasonal consumption [2][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Mexico's oil production has plummeted to levels not seen since the late 1970s, threatening U.S. refiners, particularly during the peak summer driving season [2][4] - The expansion of Mexico's largest refinery, Dos Bocas, is contributing to a contraction in oil exports, leading to a regional supply crisis [4]