Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-07-02 03:32Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that geopolitical risks have decreased with the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading to expectations that Brent crude oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by early 2026 [1] - The bank forecasts that OPEC is gradually lifting its production quota cuts, predicting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - Non-OPEC countries' oil supply is expected to increase by 1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, sufficient to meet demand growth during that period [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, bringing the total production increase since April to 1.37 million barrels per day [1] - Major member countries are anticipated to approve another increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August, raising concerns about market oversupply [1] - The production increases in August and September will offset the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries, likely leading to a global market surplus in the fourth quarter [1]