【BCR解盘】黄金高位承压，回调风险浮现，下一支撑在哪？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a critical adjustment phase, influenced by mixed macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, leading to potential short-term volatility and risks of price corrections [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut this year, but the timing and extent remain uncertain. Key upcoming data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, continue to pose uncertainties that may support gold prices despite a reduction in market hedging behavior [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, and India, are still increasing their gold reserves, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, although the pace of purchases has shown signs of slowing [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical charts indicate short-term support levels at $2280 and $2255, with resistance levels at $2340 and $2365. The MACD on the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakened momentum [5]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a drop below $2280 could lead to further testing of the $2250-$2230 range. Additionally, CFTC data shows a reduction in net long positions by hedge funds, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutions [5]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The short-term outlook is bearish with expectations of a corrective phase, likely maintaining a trading range between $2255 and $2340. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy while awaiting a clearer directional breakout [6]. - The medium-term view suggests positioning for potential gains on dips, especially if upcoming non-farm and inflation data disappoint, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. A sustained move above $2300 and a breakout past $2345 could lead to targets of $2385-$2400 [7][8].