Core Insights - The introduction of the "Liberation Day" tariff by former President Donald Trump on April 2 significantly impacted international coffee prices, causing the ICO composite indicator price (I-CIP) to drop to 308.93 cents per pound, a four-month low, down 32.59 cents from previous levels [1] - Following the suspension of most tariffs on April 9, the I-CIP price rebounded, indicating the volatility of coffee prices in response to tariff changes [1] - The average I-CIP price for April 2025 was 335.76 cents per pound, reflecting a 3.5% month-over-month decline but a 54.8% year-over-year increase compared to April 2024 [1] Supply Dynamics - The adjustment of coffee futures contracts has introduced new changes in the market, with Vietnam added as a deliverable source for coffee "C" futures contracts, alleviating supply concerns by releasing 37,500 pounds of Arabica washed coffee at a price differential of -600 points [3] - Uncertainty surrounds Brazil's coffee production outlook, with conflicting views: Cooxupé, Brazil's largest Arabica coffee cooperative, warns of negative impacts from ongoing high temperatures and low rainfall, while Brazil's national supply company, Conab, has raised its coffee production forecast for 2025 [3] Export Trends - Coffee bean exports for the 2024/25 season are on a downward trend, with total exports declining for three consecutive months; March 2025 exports totaled 11.64 million bags, down 0.9% from 2024 [4] - Colombia's washed coffee exports surged by 25.3% year-over-year in March, maintaining growth for eight consecutive months, while Robusta coffee exports fell by 8.4% [4] - Overall, March 2025 coffee exports reached 13 million bags, a 0.6% year-over-year increase, but regional performance varied significantly, with South America’s export share dropping to 35.7%, the lowest since June 2023, while Africa saw a remarkable 36.3% increase [5][6]
4月美国关税战，对咖啡豆市场的影响
3 6 Ke·2025-07-02 04:30