两年来首现“金叉”，标普500下半年涨势可期

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has formed a "golden cross" as its 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential bullish trend in the market [1]. Market Performance - Historical data shows that after a golden cross, the S&P 500 has an average return of 10% over the following year, with a 71% probability of an increase [5]. - The average performance of the S&P 500 one week, one month, three months, and six months after a golden cross is as follows: -0.3%, 0.4%, 2.7%, and 4.69% respectively, with a median of 0.1%, 1.1%, 3.6%, and 5.59% [4]. - In the last 20 occurrences of a golden cross, the average increase was 13%, with an 85% probability of a rise [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts view the golden cross as a healthy market signal, suggesting strong market participation and breadth, which may lead to a robust second half of the year [7]. - The recent golden cross is seen as a significant milestone, marking a strong recovery from previous lows, with the S&P 500 recently achieving record closing levels [6][8]. Sector Performance - The Nasdaq index, which is heavily weighted towards technology stocks, also triggered a golden cross, indicating a positive trend in tech stocks, including AI leader Nvidia [8]. - Small-cap stocks have shown strength recently, further confirming the improving breadth of the market [8].