Core Viewpoint - The glass supply and demand situation is deteriorating in the first half of 2025, leading to a decline in prices, with the market expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [1] Supply Analysis - Glass daily melting capacity is projected to fluctuate between 155,000 to 159,000 tons, with a slight decline expected if profit levels are maintained [1] - In the second half of 2024, some production lines will undergo cold repairs, reducing daily melting capacity to 158,000 tons by the end of the year [1] - Current daily melting capacity is at a relatively low level compared to recent years, with varying profit and loss situations across different fuel production lines [1] Demand Analysis - Glass demand is closely linked to real estate completions, with a 20% year-on-year decline in new construction in 2023, leading to a forecasted decrease in completions in 2025 [1] - From January to May 2025, glass demand decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a slow recovery in April but overall weak performance during the peak season [1] - The demand for glass is expected to remain weak due to the anticipated decline in real estate completions in 2025 [1] Inventory Situation - High inventory levels have accumulated due to low daily melting capacity and weak demand from January to May 2025, particularly in Hubei province [1] - Effective inventory reduction will require significant cold repairs or a noticeable improvement in demand [1] Price Trends - Glass prices have experienced significant declines, with the market going through four phases in the first half of 2025, including a rebound in late March followed by a sharp drop due to low demand and high inventory levels [1] - The monthly price structure is expected to maintain a contango format, with the market's outlook for future demand remaining pessimistic [1]
玻璃：2025 年供需双弱，6 - 8 月需求或降 6% - 8%
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 05:43