Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute highlights the challenges posed by trade protectionism and the uneven recovery of the global economy, while emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and emerging industries for banking profitability in 2025 [2][3][4]. Global Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the U.S. implemented "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded expectations, disrupting international trade and financial markets, leading to weakened global economic growth [2]. - Major economies are experiencing a divergence in fiscal and monetary policies, with a general trend towards looser fiscal policies and mixed monetary stances [2]. - Global foreign direct investment (FDI) has rebounded, but trade protectionism continues to weaken growth momentum, particularly affecting export-oriented economies [2][3]. China Economic Outlook - The Bank of China Research Institute anticipates that China's economy will maintain stability in H1 2025, supported by proactive counter-cyclical policies and better-than-expected exports [3]. - The report stresses the need for enhanced macroeconomic policies focused on demand to ensure steady growth and to prepare for external uncertainties [3][6]. Banking Industry Insights - The banking sector is facing pressure due to a weak global economic recovery, but emerging industries like artificial intelligence are providing new support for profitability [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, U.S. banks reported a net profit of $70.7 billion, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in AI and digital technology sectors [5]. - Chinese banks are expected to maintain a strong focus on technology finance, with significant loan growth projected for strategic emerging industries [7]. Stability of Financial Systems - The report indicates that the capital adequacy of banks remains stable, with a focus on improving the support chain for technology enterprises [7]. - The introduction of regulatory policies for technology finance is expected to enhance the banking sector's ability to support the entire lifecycle of tech companies [7]. Stablecoin Discussion - The report addresses the rise of stablecoins, emphasizing their potential impact on the global financial system and the need for careful regulatory approaches [8][9]. - The Bank of China Research Institute suggests a gradual approach to developing a RMB stablecoin, starting with trade payments before expanding to financial investments [9]. Consumer Trends in China - In May 2025, China's retail sales reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a 6.4% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [10]. - The report predicts that consumer growth in H2 2025 will stabilize, supported by government policies and a focus on service consumption [10].
全球经济动能趋弱，中行展望：银行业盈利看重新兴产业