订单大增！军工基金单月飙涨20％，“十四五”收官年催化行情

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance in June, with military-themed funds achieving significant gains, driven by a fundamental shift in the industry’s business environment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - Military-themed active equity funds (Class A shares) recorded an average monthly increase of 7.31% as of June 30, significantly outperforming mainstream stock indices [1]. - The top 10 military funds all surpassed an 11% increase, with the top performer, China Europe High-end Equipment A, achieving a remarkable 20.19% monthly gain [2]. - Key to the success of these funds is the deep exploration of core assets, with leading funds holding shares in major military enterprises benefiting from domestic military equipment upgrades and increased military trade exports [2]. Group 2: Industry Fundamentals - The military industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved order volumes in the first quarter of 2025, particularly in missile, aviation engine, military communication equipment, and unmanned systems sectors [2]. - Companies like Aerospace Electric and Zhenhua Technology are positioned well within the missile supply chain, experiencing a notable recovery in orders [2]. - The military sector's theoretical growth potential is significant, with estimates suggesting a minimum of 100% growth and a maximum of 300% by 2025, as indicated by the cyclical nature of military planning [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The military industry has made significant technological breakthroughs, enhancing market confidence in its capabilities [4]. - The production capacity of the Wenchang Satellite Super Factory is set to reach 1,000 satellites annually, which will lower manufacturing costs and benefit companies in satellite communication and navigation [4]. - Despite the military sector's current high valuation, its scarcity and defensive attributes make it a focal point for capital allocation [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, there is an expectation for a concentrated release of orders, which will drive performance recovery in the military sector [5]. - The initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide new growth expectations, supported by increased military trade exports and advancements in national defense modernization [5]. - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese War of Resistance against Japan is expected to catalyze interest in the military sector [5]. Group 5: Policy and Geopolitical Factors - Recent policies, such as the Military Scientific Research Reward Regulations, are aimed at incentivizing military technological innovation, particularly in critical areas like aviation engines [6]. - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts is likely to sustain demand for military equipment, reflecting a market reassessment of the value of air superiority assets [6]. - The military sector's fundamentals remain strong, with a positive outlook for core military companies' performance, although caution is advised regarding potential geopolitical fluctuations [6].