黄金支撑点仍在，关税带来不确定性导致降息推迟

Group 1 - The gold ETF fund (159937) saw a 0.15% increase with a trading volume of 419 million yuan during the midday session on July 2 [1] - Over the past five days, the gold ETF fund experienced a net inflow of 445 million yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume of the gold ETF fund over the past month was 686 million yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, international spot gold was trading at $3,337.36 per ounce, showing no change, with a high of $3,345.12 [2] - COMEX gold was priced at $3,347 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.08% [2] - Notable increases in related stocks included Shandong Gold up 5.50%, Zijin Mining up 4.24%, and Luk Fook Holdings up 3.99% [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rate cuts, influenced by uncertainties from the U.S. government's tariff policies [3] - Powell acknowledged that the Fed's monetary policy may be affected by the government's tariffs, which have raised inflation rate predictions [3] - The Fed's decision on potential rate cuts in July will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly employment figures [4] Group 4 - The U.S. economy remains robust with a strong labor market, but upcoming employment data will be crucial for assessing the Fed's policy direction [4] - Economists predict that June's non-farm payrolls may increase by 110,000, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.2% to 4.3% [4] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast, predicting the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, three months earlier than previously expected [4] Group 5 - Market expectations for a rate cut are growing, with factors such as weak consumer data and concerns over economic downturn influencing gold prices [5] - The anticipated weak employment data is expected to reinforce market expectations for a rate cut, putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar [5] - The gold price is expected to maintain a high level due to these economic factors, with a potential for high-level fluctuations [5] Group 6 - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, allowing for T+0 trading [6] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise with the expansion of credit money supply, serving as a hedge against tail risks in asset portfolios [6] - The performance of gold assets tends to be favorable during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, making it a viable investment option [6]