OPEC+三月连增产137万桶，地缘风险消退，油价震荡寻底！

Group 1: Supply Side Pressure - OPEC+ has implemented a large-scale production increase plan for three consecutive months, with eight core member countries increasing production by 411,000 barrels per month, totaling an increase of 1.37 million barrels per day, which has recovered nearly 62% of the previous production cuts [1] - Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC+, is actively promoting the production increase strategy to regain market share lost to U.S. shale oil companies [1] - Russia's stance has shifted significantly, now showing a more open attitude towards further production increases if deemed necessary by OPEC+, with discussions expected at the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Premium - The military conflict between Israel and Iran has officially ended with a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, alleviating market concerns about the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil transport [2] - During the conflict, Brent crude oil prices surged to over $80 per barrel, but following the ceasefire announcement, prices plummeted by more than 12% within two days, nearly erasing all previous gains [2] - The rapid release of geopolitical risks has shifted market focus back to fundamental factors, with the core issue now being structural supply surplus rather than geopolitical supply disruptions, redefining oil price dynamics [2]