Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-07-02 08:48Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to three times this year, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3%-3.25% from 3.5%-3.75% [1][2] - The next rate cut is now expected in September, earlier than previously anticipated in December, due to evidence suggesting that the impact of tariffs on monthly inflation is less significant than expected [1] - The labor market appears healthy, but job searching has become more challenging, with short-term downward risks to employment numbers due to seasonal factors and changes in immigration policy [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 is entering its historically strongest month, with an average return of 1.67% in July since 1928 [5] Group 3 - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, exceeding market expectations, with notable increases in output and new orders indices [7] - The new export orders index improved from 46.2 in May to 49.4 in June, although external demand remains weak, leading to a slight growth in new orders [7] - The difference between the Caixin PMI and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which remains below 50, may be attributed to the different coverage of industries, with Caixin focusing more on export-oriented sectors [7]