狂欢背后暗藏危机？华尔街担心美股泡沫风险上升

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index closed the first half of the year at a historic high, raising concerns among some Wall Street professionals about potential market overheating [2] - Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale warned of "bubble" risks, citing the Barclays stock frenzy indicator, which has returned to early-year peak levels, reminiscent of the meme stock craze and the dot-com bubble [2][3] - The resurgence of SPAC IPOs has been notable, with issuance in 2023 already matching the total for the 2023/24 period [2] - The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has seen a significant rebound, surging over 44% in the past three months, second only to the post-COVID spike [2] Group 2 - Benson Durham from Piper Sandler noted that overvaluation is not limited to individual stocks favored by retail investors, but is present across all sectors of the S&P 500 [2] - Despite the current market rally being driven more by liquidity than fundamentals, predicting market bubbles remains challenging, as they often last longer than expected [3] - Economic indicators suggest a potential cooling, with slowing job growth and weakening housing demand, yet the market continues to rise [3] - Stephanie Roth from Wolf Research highlighted that investors may be underestimating economic downturn risks, with the model predicting a less than 5% chance of recession, significantly lower than the historical average of 16% [3]