欧元/美元价格预测：技术性回调仍然可能

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate has shown significant movement, with the Euro reaching a new high of 1.1830 before a slight decline, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation, as the Euro ended an eight-day rally [3]. - The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous lows following the Senate's approval of President Trump's comprehensive tax reform, which affected the Euro's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a stronger interest in risk assets, thereby supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [5]. - Investors remain cautious about potential changes in Washington's trade stance, especially with the U.S. tariff suspension deadline approaching on July 9 [6]. Central Bank Policies - The divergence in policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve continues, with the Fed maintaining interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [7][8]. - The ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 2.00%, with Lagarde indicating that further easing would depend on a significant deterioration in external demand [8]. Market Sentiment - Speculators have increased their net long positions in the Euro, reaching the highest level since January 2024, while commercial participants have raised their net short positions [9]. - The total open interest in Euro contracts has also risen to approximately 762.6K, marking a two-week high [9]. Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels are identified at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [10]. - Initial support is noted at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1403, followed by lower support levels [10]. Outlook - The Euro's upward trend is expected to continue unless geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, driven by reduced risk aversion and growing confidence in potential Fed policy easing [12].