央行论坛：各大央行政策路径显分歧

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is focused on the differing monetary policy stances of key central bank leaders, reflecting an uneven path towards policy normalization despite progress in inflation reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and European Central Bank - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed a cautious but slightly dovish tone, indicating that more positive data is needed to confirm a sustained decline in inflation towards the 2% target [2]. - Powell mentioned that if upcoming employment and inflation data continue to improve, the Fed may consider a rate cut as early as September, with market expectations showing a 71.8% probability for this outcome [2][4]. - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated a data-driven approach, noting that while goods inflation has slowed, service sector inflation remains stubborn, and there is no preset path for rate cuts [2][4]. Group 2: Bank of England and Bank of Japan - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained a cautious hawkish stance, expressing concerns over wage growth and service sector inflation despite a noticeable decline in UK inflation [4][5]. - Bailey's comments led to a slight strengthening of the British pound, as market expectations for a summer rate cut were pushed to the fourth quarter [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that while there has been progress in wage growth, aggressive tightening is not yet appropriate, and the BoJ needs to see stable inflation above 2% before taking further action [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Currency Trends - The overall tone from central bank leaders remains consistent, but increasing divergence in policy paths may lead to volatility in the foreign exchange market [8]. - The US dollar is under pressure due to rising fiscal deficits and trade policy uncertainties, with a potential continuation of this trend if upcoming US employment data is weak [8]. - The Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the BoJ's dovish stance, while the euro and pound are experiencing increased volatility as the ECB and BoE navigate the balance between slowing inflation and wage pressures [8].