特朗普不必久等了？美联储或已到了该降息的时候

Core Viewpoint - The pressure on soft economic data in the U.S. has reached levels that historically prompted the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, which could benefit the stock market if the timing and scale of policy easing are sufficient to prevent a recession [2][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Soft data has shown significant downward pressure, with over half of the soft data inputs now classified as "under pressure," while hard data remains stable [4][6][11]. - Historically, soft data pressure has led to Federal Reserve responses, with nearly every instance since the mid-1980s resulting in rate cuts or pauses in rate hikes [7][10]. - The interaction between soft and hard data can create a negative feedback loop, where prolonged weakness in soft data leads to declines in hard data, often culminating in a recession [4][11]. Group 2: Potential Economic Weakness - Two potential weak points in the economy are highlighted: the employment market, where layoffs are increasing, and the real estate sector, which is experiencing a decline in new home sales and building permits [13]. - The stock market's current optimism hinges on the assumption of a "non-recession" scenario, and any shift towards recession could lead to significant declines from current levels [13][16]. - The market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 20% probability of a cut in July, although this is considered low given the stability of hard data [13].