东欧五国集体退群引爆地雷战危机，欧洲和平还能撑多久？

Core Viewpoint - The withdrawal of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Finland from the Ottawa Convention signifies a dramatic shift in Eastern European security dynamics, transforming the Baltic region into a heavily fortified area with landmines, undermining the previously held ideals of peace in Europe [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - The Ottawa Convention, established in 1997, aimed to prohibit the use, storage, and trade of anti-personnel landmines, representing a significant humanitarian achievement [3]. - The current geopolitical climate, particularly due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to a reevaluation of security strategies among Eastern European nations, resulting in the decision to withdraw from the convention [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - The five countries plan to implement the "Baltic Defense Line," which includes the deployment of smart landmines and the construction of numerous concrete bunkers along a 960-kilometer border, effectively isolating Russia's western access [3][4]. - Poland's "Eastern Shield" initiative, with an investment of $2.55 billion, aims to create a formidable barrier in the Suwalki Corridor, a critical strategic area connecting Kaliningrad and Belarus [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The withdrawal and subsequent militarization could severely disrupt cross-border trade, with Lithuania's annual energy transit to Russia and Belarus valued at over $4 billion and Poland's agricultural trade with Belarus at approximately €2.5 billion [4]. - The establishment of minefields is expected to increase logistics costs by over 300%, potentially halting civilian interactions and dismantling the last economic ties between Russia and Europe [4]. Group 4: Broader Regional Impact - The trend of re-evaluating landmine policies is spreading, with Sweden and Austria considering similar actions, indicating a potential shift towards a new arms race in Europe [5]. - The deployment of modern smart landmines, capable of automatic target recognition, poses a significant psychological threat, transforming borders into "death zones" and reshaping the security landscape in Europe [5]. Group 5: Conclusion - The collapse of the Ottawa Convention and the subsequent militarization of Eastern Europe reflect a deeper strategic crisis, pushing the continent towards a more dangerous military competition rather than fostering peace [5][6].