Vatee外汇：美元半年最差，却会在七月意外翻身吗？

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in nearly fifty years, dropping below 97 due to concerns over trade friction, fiscal deficits, and economic slowdown [1][3] - Unexpectedly high job vacancies reported by the US Labor Department indicate resilient labor demand, while a significant tax and spending bill passed by the Senate has led to a rapid increase in long-term yields [1][3] - The market is reassessing the risks of a "too bearish" outlook on the dollar, with the dollar recovering nearly half of its losses against the yen and Swiss franc following the data release [1][3] Group 2 - Despite debt pressures casting a shadow over the dollar, short positions have reached extreme levels since the beginning of the year [3] - If the fiscal bill passes in the House, market focus will shift from the deficit to short-term demand stimulation and corporate profit boosts, potentially supporting the dollar [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a wait-and-see approach but has not ruled out further rate cuts this year, creating a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments for the dollar [3] Group 3 - The ten-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4.25%, indicating that traders are preparing for a re-inflation scenario driven by fiscal stimulus [4] - Key upcoming events include the tariff negotiations on July 9, which could significantly impact the dollar's performance depending on the outcomes [4] - The market is advised to be cautious of overly bearish positions on the dollar, with short-term strategies favoring buying the dollar against high beta currencies [4] Group 4 - The future of the dollar depends on three factors: whether the trade window closes, the resilience of US data, and any adjustments in the Federal Reserve's language [5] - July is expected to be a month of both risks and opportunities for the dollar, with potential for recovery if conditions tilt in favor of bullish sentiment [5]