暴跌超40%！银行存款利率大幅缩水，零利率时代真的要来了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic deposit interest rates in China are entering a rapid decline, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.8%, a decrease of over 40%. Concerns arise about the possibility of rates reaching zero, similar to some European countries [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - European countries' "zero interest rate" policies are primarily nominal, with actual deposit rates ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. This is due to their long-term low growth and low inflation, prompting central banks to encourage spending and investment [3]. - China's economic performance remains strong, with a GDP growth rate of 5.4% in the first quarter, making the likelihood of "zero interest rates" very low [5]. - The M2 money supply in China exceeds 300 trillion, which is double the GDP, indicating potential inflation risks that further reduce the chances of reaching "zero interest rates" [5]. Group 2: Banking System Implications - If "zero interest rates" were implemented, large state-owned banks would attract most deposits, leading to the potential collapse of smaller banks due to lack of deposits, which would destabilize the financial system [8]. - A significant outflow of domestic deposits could occur as individuals seek higher interest rates abroad, potentially leading to a depreciation of the RMB and increased import costs for consumers [10]. - Low deposit rates could lead to a decrease in loan rates, encouraging borrowing among individuals who may lack repayment capacity, posing risks to financial stability, reminiscent of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis [12]. Group 3: Conclusion - The likelihood of entering a "zero interest rate" environment in China is deemed low due to strong economic growth, inflation risks, and the potential negative impacts on the banking sector and financial stability [12].