市场泡沫担忧重现，华尔街"非理性繁荣"指标再度飙升

Core Insights - The "irrational exuberance" indicator developed by Barclays has surged to a two-digit average of 10.7%, marking the first time since February that it has crossed this threshold, historically indicating extreme market bubble conditions [1][2] - Current market sentiment is driven by optimism regarding trade negotiations and speculation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates, contributing to recent highs in the U.S. stock market [1][2] Market Sentiment and Indicators - The "irrational exuberance" indicator, also referred to as the "stock frenzy indicator," is calculated using derivatives metrics, volatility technical analysis, and sentiment signals inferred from the options market, reflecting the proportion of "frenzied" stocks in liquid options [2][3] - The historical average of this indicator is around 7%, but it has previously exceeded 10% during the late 1990s internet bubble and the 2021 "Meme stock" craze [2] Market Trends and Speculation - There has been a significant increase in SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) issuances, with the number of new SPACs in 2025 surpassing the total from the past two years [3] - Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF has experienced its second-largest historical gain, following the pandemic surge, indicating a strong interest in speculative technology stocks [3] - In the second quarter, stocks related to Bitcoin surged by 78%, quantum computing stocks rose by 69%, and meme stocks increased by 44%, highlighting the volatility and speculative nature of these investments [3] Expert Commentary - Barclays' derivatives strategist warns that the elevated indicator suggests investors may be overly optimistic, which could lead to increased market volatility [5] - Despite the high levels of the indicator, it is noted that bubbles can persist for extended periods before correction, suggesting a strategy of riding the trend while hedging with options to mitigate potential losses [5]