Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed would likely have adopted a more accommodative monetary policy if not for the tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - The Fed has maintained its key lending rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December of the previous year, with potential for two rate cuts by the end of 2025 according to the dot plot [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, with over 76% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged [1] Group 2 - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, calling for rate cuts and suggesting that Powell's actions have been detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump believes that lowering rates to 1% to 2% could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually, arguing that the current economic conditions do not warrant high rates [2] - Powell has reiterated his intention to remain in his position and has stated that he cannot be forced to resign by the President [2] Group 3 - Following the Fed's June rate decision, global market risk appetite has improved, but volatility is expected to remain high due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [3] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, with a 23% chance of a rate cut and a 78% chance of a cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] - A potential rate cut to around 2% could have significant and far-reaching impacts on the global economy [3] Group 4 - Historical trends suggest that Fed rate cuts often exacerbate financial market volatility, as lower funding costs may lead to increased acquisition of undervalued assets globally [6] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate that expectations of rate cuts provide important support for non-yielding assets like gold, with COMEX gold prices nearing $3,350 per ounce [6]
关税政策影响美联储降息判断 特朗普鲍威尔矛盾再升级
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-02 13:25