Core Insights - The U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with significant losses in the service sector [1][3] - The labor market's weakness has raised concerns among market participants, with employers becoming increasingly cautious amid economic slowdown [3][11] Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000, with May's figures revised down to a mere 29,000 increase [1][3] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in small businesses, while manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors saw job gains [5][8] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced a notable decline, losing 66,000 jobs, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [3][9] - In contrast, the goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, with manufacturing contributing 15,000, construction 9,000, and mining 8,000 [9] Wage Growth - Despite the slowdown in hiring, wage growth remains relatively stable, with year-over-year wage growth for employed workers at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.5% in May [10] - The wage growth for job switchers decreased from 7.0% to 6.8% [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, traders increased bets on at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025 [12] - The dollar index fell by approximately 20 points, while U.S. stock futures showed minimal fluctuations [14] Broader Labor Market Indicators - Average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 per month, the weakest level since the onset of the pandemic [15] - Additional indicators of labor market weakness include longer job search times and a significant drop in consumer confidence regarding job availability [16]
“小非农”爆冷！美国6月ADP就业人数骤降至-3.3万人 为2023年3月以来最差
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-02 13:27