净息差与不良贷款率倒挂，商业银行经营面临考验

Core Insights - The banking sector in China is facing a critical situation as the net interest margin (NIM) has fallen to 1.43%, below the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, indicating a potential challenge in covering operational, credit, and capital costs [2][3] - The average NIM for Chinese banks has dropped below the regulatory warning line of 1.8%, with the current figure at 1.74% as of Q1 2023, marking a significant decline [2][3] - Despite the declining NIM, banks are still generating reasonable profits compared to other sectors, primarily through asset growth, which increased by 7.2% year-on-year in Q1 2023, although this is a slowdown from the previous year's 11.7% growth [3][4] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for commercial banks in 2024 is 23,235 billion yuan, a decrease of 540 billion yuan or 2.27% from 2023, which had a profit growth rate of 3.23% [3][4] - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for A-share listed banks is currently at 0.58, indicating limited capacity for external capital replenishment through common stock issuance [4][5] - Investment income for many banks has seen significant growth, with 37 out of 42 listed banks reporting positive investment income growth, and five small banks achieving over 100% year-on-year growth [5][6] Strategic Adjustments - In response to the narrowing NIM, banks are adjusting their business strategies by increasing fees for various services, such as credit services and ATM withdrawals [4][5] - The bond market has been favorable, with banks increasing their bond investments, leading to substantial investment income growth; for instance,招商银行 reported a 34.74% increase in investment income for 2024 [4][5] - The revitalization of the capital market is crucial for small banks to raise capital through listings, which would also enhance their intermediary business income [5][6]