ADP Private-Sector Payrolls -33K, Worst in 2+ Years

Group 1 - The ADP private-sector payrolls for June reported a decline of -33K, marking the first negative reading since March 2023, significantly below the expected +100K and the revised +29K from the previous month [1][3] - Goods-producing jobs increased by +32K, while services jobs saw a decline of -66K, with notable losses in Professional/Business Services (-56K) and Education/Healthcare (-52K) [2] - Large companies (over 500 employees) added +30K jobs, whereas small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost -47K jobs, and medium-sized firms lost -15K jobs [3] Group 2 - The last negative ADP reading occurred in March 2023, during a different economic context with the Fed raising interest rates to over 5% and an inflation rate of 5.0% [4] - The current job losses are primarily in white-collar sectors, which may not be directly linked to the White House's deportation campaign of undocumented immigrants [5] - The upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariff initiatives could impact future payrolls, with a potential recovery dependent on new trade deals or a continuation of tariff pauses [6] Group 3 - The trailing four-month average private-sector job growth is only +51K, insufficient to cover new retirees, compared to an average of +162K per month over the previous eight months [7]