崩盘信号！美国经济亮红灯，GDP萎缩+消费负增长+收入暴跌

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, marking the worst performance in three years [1] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, unable to lower interest rates due to inflation concerns while also hesitant to raise rates amid fears of a complete economic collapse [1][2] - The uncertainty in policies has reached a new high since 1985, leading to low corporate investment and a reluctance to expand operations [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has drastically declined, with a 0.1% decrease in May, marking the first negative growth of the year, and a significant drop in consumer confidence to 93, the lowest since the pandemic began [4] - The average disposable income for the lowest income group has decreased by 4.9%, which is more than double the decline experienced by higher income groups [4] Trade and Inventory Issues - A surge in imports due to preemptive stockpiling before tariffs led to a 37.9% increase in imports, negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.7 percentage points [5] - Retail inventory levels are high, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 1.4, indicating that products are not moving off the shelves [5] Inflation and Price Pressures - Core PCE inflation is currently at 2.7%, but there are concerns that actual tariff rates could lead to a significant increase in inflation, potentially exceeding 2.8% if comprehensive tariffs are enacted [8] - Price increases are already being observed, with specific products like plush toys seeing a 42% price hike due to expiring tariff exemptions [8] International Trade Relations - The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $96.6 billion, with exports from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. increasing by 35% in May [6][10] - Retaliatory measures from trade partners, including the EU's plan to impose tariffs on $26 billion worth of U.S. goods, could further strain U.S. agricultural exports and increase costs in the automotive sector [10]