太厉害了！中科院预测房价连续5年全中，最新2025年预测来了

Core Insights - The China Academy of Sciences (CAS) has accurately predicted housing prices for five consecutive years, showcasing a remarkable data-driven forecasting capability [1][6][9] - In 2024, CAS forecasts a moderate increase of 3.2% in housing prices for first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities are expected to decline by 1-3% [1][9] - The accuracy of CAS's predictions is attributed to a robust data analysis framework and a unique predictive model that incorporates various macroeconomic indicators [6][9] Yearly Breakdown - 2023: CAS predicted a national average sales price fluctuation of around 2.4%, which was confirmed by actual market data [3] - 2022: The prediction of a year-on-year decline in national average sales price was validated, with a decrease of 3.1% [3] - 2021: CAS accurately forecasted a price increase of 7.8% for first-tier cities and 5.9% for second-tier cities, with an error margin of only 0.2 percentage points [4] - 2020: Contrary to widespread pessimism due to the COVID-19 pandemic, CAS predicted a moderate increase in national average sales price, which rose by 4.2% by year-end [6] Predictive Model - The predictive model developed by CAS integrates 47 variables and is updated monthly to reflect real-time market dynamics [9] - Key factors considered in the model include population flow, land supply, monetary policy, real estate regulation, and economic growth [7][9] - Recent data, such as a 16.7% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue in 2024, indicates increased regulatory control by local governments [9] Future Outlook - For 2025, CAS anticipates continued population movement and a concentration of homebuyers aged 25-35, alongside a persistent supply-demand imbalance [10] - The ongoing implementation of stable monetary policies and slight easing of real estate regulations are expected to influence market conditions positively [10] - CAS's consistent performance over the past five years suggests a need for a more data-driven and rational approach to understanding housing price fluctuations [10]