华联期货：不锈钢社会库存持续累积

Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel futures prices have shown weakness in Q2 2023, nearing 2020 lows, but recent production cuts have led to a rebound in spot prices, indicating potential changes in supply and demand dynamics [1][4]. Supply Summary - As of May 2025, the crude stainless steel output from 43 domestic steel enterprises was 3.4629 million tons, a decrease of 1.14% month-on-month but an increase of 4.9% year-on-year [1]. - Cumulative output from January to May was 16.4843 million tons, up 10.15% year-on-year [1]. - June production was 3.3623 million tons, down 2.91% month-on-month, while July production is expected to be 3.1655 million tons, a decrease of 9.58% [1]. - The production of 200 series stainless steel was 1.0219 million tons, down 1.62% month-on-month; 300 series was 1.5427 million tons, down 4.94%; and 400 series was 600.9 thousand tons, up 0.19% [1]. Demand Summary - The apparent consumption of stainless steel in May 2025 was 2.9093 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2]. - From January to May, the apparent consumption totaled 13.9384 million tons, up 5.68% year-on-year [2]. - Demand from the real estate sector has declined, and the effects of policies promoting the replacement of consumer goods have been fully realized [2]. - July is traditionally a weak demand month for stainless steel, which may put pressure on prices [2]. Inventory Summary - The accumulation of stainless steel social inventory is due to supply growth outpacing demand growth, with total inventory at 1.1544 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. - Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory was 622.2 thousand tons, down 2%, while hot-rolled stainless steel inventory was 532.2 thousand tons, up 1.82% [2]. Trade Summary - From January to May 2025, China imported 718 thousand tons of stainless steel, a decrease of 258.6 thousand tons or 26.5% year-on-year [3]. - Exports totaled 2.1101 million tons, an increase of 200.6 thousand tons or 10.5% year-on-year, although recent export growth has slowed [3]. - Net exports reached 1.392 million tons, up 459 thousand tons or 49.2% year-on-year, with over 50% of exports going to Southeast Asian countries, which may be affected by U.S. tariff policies [3]. Cost Summary - As of late June, the profit margins for various stainless steel production methods were negative, indicating a cost-price mismatch: -2.44% for high-nickel iron, -0.68% for scrap stainless steel, -7.88% for self-produced high-nickel iron, and -21.57% for low-nickel and pure nickel processes [3]. - The actual reduction in stainless steel production in July remains to be observed, with short-term cuts potentially leading to price rebounds, but a long-term reduction trend has not yet formed [3]. Nickel and Chrome Market Summary - Nickel iron prices are weak, with recent bids at 940 yuan per nickel and a Mysteel index at 920 yuan per nickel [4]. - Domestic nickel pig iron imports for May 2025 were 97.7 thousand tons, with a cumulative import of 523 thousand tons from January to May, reflecting a 23.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - Chrome ore prices have declined, weakening cost support for ferrochrome, while the southern production areas are entering a peak water period, which may affect electricity prices and ferrochrome costs [4]. Overall Market Outlook - The stainless steel market is currently characterized by oversupply and weak demand, with ongoing inventory accumulation and insufficient cost support for prices [4]. - Short-term production cuts may lead to price rebounds, but a long-term reduction trend has not yet emerged, indicating that prices are still in a "bottoming" phase [4]. - As global excess capacity is gradually eliminated, the influence of major stainless steel producing countries is expected to increase, potentially creating better long positions in the future [4].