KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-03 00:14Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has underperformed the market this year, with a decline of 6.24% while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.16% [1] Price Dynamics - The market price of the core product, Feitian Moutai, has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, with the factory price now at 1169 yuan per bottle [1] - The price disparity between the factory price and market price has created a "dual-track" pricing system, benefiting distributors significantly [2] - The factory price of Feitian Moutai was previously 969 yuan per bottle from 2018 to 2023, with market prices peaking over 3000 yuan per bottle in 2021 [2] Channel Reform - Guizhou Moutai is undergoing a channel reform to reduce reliance on distributors, having cut the number of distributors by 346 in 2020 [2][3] - The company has shifted focus to direct sales, with direct sales revenue increasing from 72.49 billion yuan in 2019 to 749 billion yuan in 2024, representing a significant rise in total revenue share [3] Impact of Price Decline - The decline in Feitian Moutai prices has also affected the sales of other products like Moutai 1935, which has seen its market price drop to 650 yuan per bottle, below its factory price of 798 yuan [7] - The overall sales of Moutai 1935 reached nearly 10 billion yuan in 2023, indicating its emergence as a market hit despite the price drop [6] Valuation Metrics - Following the stock price decline, Guizhou Moutai's valuation has reached the lower end of its 10-year valuation range, currently at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2, compared to a historical average of 15 [8] - In the first quarter of this year, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268 billion yuan, up 11.56% [9]