下半年国际棉花价格展望

Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation between 65 to 80 cents per pound in the second half of 2025, lacking strong upward or downward driving forces [1][12]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA's June global cotton supply and demand data indicates a slight decrease in the cotton stock-to-use ratio for the 2025/2026 season, down to 65.22%. Production is expected to decrease by 640,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, while consumption is projected to increase by 260,000 tons to 25.64 million tons. Ending stocks are down by 110,000 tons to 16.72 million tons, reflecting a limited decline in the overall stock-to-use ratio [2]. - The import and export dynamics remain balanced, with China, Turkey, and Bangladesh reducing their import volumes, while Pakistan's imports are expected to rise. Brazil and Australia are projected to increase their export expectations, while India's exports are expected to decrease [2]. - The planting and growth conditions for U.S. cotton show a slight delay, with planting rates at 92%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year. The quality of U.S. cotton remains low, with a good-excellent rate of 47%, down 9 percentage points from last year [3]. Export Dynamics - The signing of new contracts for U.S. cotton is cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies. As of June 12, 2025, the weekly signing volume for the 2025/2026 season was 62,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 146%, but previous weeks had shown low activity due to tariff concerns [4]. - India's cotton planting area is increasing, with a reported 3.125 million hectares planted, up by 214,000 hectares from the previous year, driven by higher minimum support prices and favorable weather conditions [5][6]. - Brazil's cotton export momentum has slowed, with a 16% decrease in average daily exports compared to the previous year. The total cotton production for Brazil in the 2024/2025 season is projected at 3.913 million tons, with a slight increase in yield but a decrease in planted area [8][9]. Market Outlook - The global cotton market is characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with uncertainties in tariff policies limiting demand growth. Consequently, significant price increases for U.S. cotton are unlikely without strong driving factors [12].