特斯拉Q2销量创史上最大滑坡，为何华尔街一点不慌

Core Insights - Tesla experienced its largest quarterly delivery decline ever, with approximately 384,000 electric vehicles delivered in Q2, down 13.5% from 444,000 in the same period last year, but this was better than Wall Street's worst expectations, leading to a 5% increase in stock price [1][2] Delivery Performance - The delivery report was generally in line with analyst expectations, exceeding the most pessimistic forecasts. Analysts had an average expectation of 389,400 deliveries, with some estimates as low as 366,000, while Tesla's actual deliveries were around 384,000, approximately 5% higher than the lowest predictions [2] Stock Market Reaction - Despite the decline in deliveries, Tesla's stock rose by 5%, indicating investor confidence in the company's ability to remain competitive in a challenging market environment [3] Future Growth Challenges - Tesla delivered about 720,700 vehicles in the first half of the year and needs to deliver over 1 million vehicles in the next two quarters to exceed the 1,789,226 vehicles delivered in 2024, which poses a significant challenge [4] Potential for Sales Recovery - Achieving the necessary delivery numbers is daunting, especially since Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles in Q3 and approximately 495,000 in Q4 last year, totaling less than 1 million for those two quarters [5] Positive Indicators from China - A positive factor for Tesla is the data from the China Passenger Car Association, indicating that deliveries from the Shanghai factory increased by 0.8% year-over-year in June, with 71,599 vehicles delivered, suggesting growth potential in the Chinese market despite fierce competition [6] Analyst Concerns - Some analysts remain skeptical about Tesla's performance, citing challenges such as increased competition in the electric vehicle market and the company's focus on projects like autonomous driving and the Optimus robot, which may dilute resources [7]