方正证券：6月重卡旺销如期兑现 看好三季度板块景气延续趋势

Group 1 - The heavy truck market in June saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.9%, with total sales reaching approximately 92,000 units, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth [2][4] - The first half of the year recorded total heavy truck sales of 533,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [2][4] - The domestic terminal demand exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of over 36%, driven by the implementation of scrapping and replacement policies [3] Group 2 - Traditional diesel and new energy vehicles contributed significantly to the sales increase, with diesel heavy trucks growing approximately 52% year-on-year [3] - New energy heavy trucks saw sales surpassing 15,000 units in June, achieving a penetration rate of over 24%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 120% [3] - The export market remained robust, with a nearly 10% year-on-year increase in June, despite a 95% decline in exports to Russia [3][4] Group 3 - The heavy truck sector is expected to maintain a positive trend in the third quarter, with anticipated average monthly sales exceeding 80,000 units and a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4] - The market sentiment regarding exports has improved, with non-Russian exports growing over 30% year-on-year, indicating strong demand from regions like the Middle East and South America [4] - The continuous inventory reduction in domestic channels over the past three months is expected to enhance market confidence and lead to stronger wholesale sales growth [4]