小非农意外爆冷，降息预期升温，黄金基金ETF（518800）连续10日净流入额超7.8亿元

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June showed an unexpected decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The service sector experienced a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs in June, the largest drop since the pandemic began, indicating a bleak employment outlook in the U.S. [1] - Following the ADP report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July increased, with FedWatch showing a rise from 20% to approximately 23% for a rate cut, and the federal funds futures indicating a jump to 27.4% [1] Group 2 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that inflation and employment conditions may lead to an earlier rate cut, contributing to rising market expectations for such a move [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, supported by Trump, passed a procedural vote in the Senate, potentially increasing U.S. debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which may heighten concerns over fiscal deficits and benefit gold prices [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to physical gold investments [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradual investments in gold ETFs during price corrections, as the current market shows high volatility in gold prices [3]