野村：日本取消关税希望已破灭，美国或先加税

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations poses significant pressure on the Japanese market, with potential tariffs of 30-35% threatening investor sentiment [1][2] - Analysts predict that the trade talks may be delayed until after the Japanese Senate elections, with a possible compromise emerging only after both sides escalate their positions [2][5] - The Japanese government may face political risks, including increased defense spending as a concession to the US and potential electoral backlash against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to perceived negotiation failures [5][6] Group 2 - Despite a bleak outlook for manufacturing, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey reveals resilience in the non-manufacturing sector, suggesting a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, with a 40% probability for October [3][6] - The Japanese stock market is expected to remain under pressure from a strong yen and trade negotiation deadlock, making it an unfavorable environment for stock purchases [6] - Conversely, the bond market may find support from the weak stock market, with a shift in investor interest towards long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [6]