无法削减的开支 vs 股债汇三杀的市场，英国始终在债务悬崖边缘试探

Core Viewpoint - The rapid sell-off by global bond investors signals a harsh reality for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, indicating that any fiscal policy fluctuations could trigger a significant market downturn across stocks, bonds, and currencies [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, the yield on 30-year UK government bonds surged by 19 basis points, while the British pound became the worst-performing major currency globally, declining by approximately 1% [1][2]. - The FTSE 250 index fell by 1.3%, marking its largest drop since April [2]. - The sell-off in the UK market has drawn comparisons to the mini-budget crisis of 2022, which led to a loss of investor confidence and increased borrowing costs [2]. Group 2: Internal Political Dynamics - Internal divisions within the Labour Party forced the government to abandon a £5 billion welfare cut plan, complicating Chancellor Rachel Reeves' efforts to manage the budget deficit [2][3]. - During a parliamentary session, Starmer failed to provide strong support for Reeves, leading to speculation about her potential replacement [2]. - Starmer later expressed full support for Reeves in an attempt to calm market fears, stating she would continue as Chancellor for "many years to come" [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The Labour government is facing increasing scrutiny regarding its ability to fund spending plans and adhere to self-imposed fiscal rules [3][4]. - The concessions on the £5 billion welfare reform and the reversal of a £1.25 billion winter fuel subsidy have exacerbated the fiscal challenges [3]. - Economists predict that the Office for Budget Responsibility may downgrade the UK's growth outlook, raising concerns about the government's fiscal strategy [4].