高盛、花旗集体押注“金发姑娘”！黄金真正的风险出现了

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized as a "Goldilocks" scenario, where risk appetite is rising, leading to strong performance in stocks, credit, and technology sectors, while gold is expected to perform poorly [1][4][12]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - "Goldilocks" refers to an ideal macroeconomic environment with moderate economic growth and subdued inflation [2]. - In a "Goldilocks" environment, gold loses its appeal as a safe-haven asset due to suppressed inflation, which may increase real yields and holding costs for gold [4]. - Historical data shows that during past "Goldilocks" periods, the risk-return profile of gold has significantly turned negative [4]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Gold has become a consensus long trade among asset allocators, although there has been a slight reduction in positions [6]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data indicates that gold positions are above the median, while silver scores the highest within the covered range [6]. - The consensus bullish outlook on precious metals may render gold more vulnerable in the current environment [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Technology and growth stocks are expected to continue benefiting in a "Goldilocks" environment, with technology and communication services sectors performing the best [8]. - Defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare are expected to underperform [8]. - Stock factor returns align with "Goldilocks" characteristics, with growth and momentum factors outperforming value and low-beta factors [8]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The current market is not fully in a "Goldilocks" state but leans towards a "normal" regime, with economic growth slightly above trend and inflation slightly below trend [8]. - True "Goldilocks" conditions require more extreme metrics, such as inflation being one standard deviation below the 10-year average and growth exceeding 1.4 standard deviations [8]. - AI technology is seen as a potential structural driver for productivity, which could enhance economic growth without raising inflation [10]. Group 5: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve's dovish expectations have increased, with predictions for a rate cut brought forward to September [13]. - Geopolitical risks have diminished, particularly in the Middle East, reducing market risk premiums [13]. - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations has also supported growth prospects [13].