全球紧盯！美联储7月降息的最后希望，全看今夜非农

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to increase by 110,000, down from 139,000 in May, and an unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][2] - Economists are divided on whether the unemployment rate will rise, with most leading indicators suggesting an increase, as the number of continuing unemployment claims has risen to nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2][3] - The private sector unexpectedly cut 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023, indicating a cooling job market [2][4] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% in May, and if this trend continues, it may keep the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% for June [3][4] - Economists have noted that the estimates for June's non-farm payrolls have the narrowest range since 2018, reflecting a consensus that job growth will slow [4][5] - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to a slowdown in consumer spending on travel-related services [4][5] Group 3 - The potential impact of trade policies and immigration changes may influence the unemployment rate, with some economists suggesting that reduced labor force expansion could help keep the unemployment rate lower [2][3] - Market reactions to the upcoming employment report are anticipated, with expectations that a disappointing report could lead to a decline in stock prices and an increase in bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][8] - Gold prices are also being closely monitored, with expectations that a weak employment report could support gold prices, while a strong report may lead to a decline [6][7]