华创证券：精密减速器国产替代加速 三大应用场景驱动行业增长

Core Insights - The precision reducer market is experiencing rapid growth driven by downstream industries, with high technical barriers to entry [1][2] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to accelerate the introduction of core customers through years of industry and technological accumulation, achieving domestic substitution [1][2] Group 1: Precision Reducers Overview - Precision reducers are essential transmission components that match speed and torque, including various types such as harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and precision planetary reducers [1] - Harmonic reducers are advantageous in applications requiring high precision and compact size, particularly in robotic arms and joints [1] - RV reducers offer a wide transmission ratio and high rigidity, making them suitable for heavy-load applications in robotic arms and bases [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese precision reducer market is projected to reach 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic companies capturing 70% of the sales volume but only 57% of the revenue [2] - The market is characterized by high-end products being dominated by foreign brands, while domestic products are primarily used in lower-end applications [2] Group 3: Key Application Areas - Industrial robots represent the largest downstream application for precision reducers, with an estimated shipment of 1.097 million units in 2024 [3] - The machine tool sector is crucial for precision reducers, with a projected demand of 598,000 units in 2024, highlighting the need for domestic component localization [3] - Humanoid robots present a significant growth opportunity, with configurations requiring multiple precision reducers, indicating high value per unit [3] Group 4: Domestic Manufacturer Categories - The first category includes traditional precision reducer manufacturers like Grede Harmonic and Huandong Technology, which have established experience and stable product systems [4] - The second category consists of companies from related industries such as automotive parts and motors, which are extending their capabilities into the reducer market [4] - The third category includes manufacturers with processing capabilities transitioning into reducer production, leveraging existing expertise in precision machining [5]