Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Huan Qiu Wang·2025-07-03 06:41Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a strong warning that the US dollar may begin a new round of decline following the release of the June non-farm payroll data on July 3 [1] - The dollar index has dropped 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance for the same period since 1973 [1] - A significant deterioration in the US job market could reinforce market expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, further driving the dollar index down [1] Group 2 - The easing of international geopolitical risks and the reduction of domestic fiscal policy noise are weakening the dollar's long-standing role as a safe-haven currency [1] - Even if the non-farm data is not as bad as expected, multiple factors could still lead to a gradual decline in the dollar index [1] - A weaker dollar is expected to positively impact emerging markets, supporting arbitrage trading strategies and potentially strengthening Asian currencies like the renminbi [1] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have recently adopted a more dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating the possibility of a cut in July if economic data supports it [3] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice by the end of 2025, with Treasury Secretary Yellen suggesting cuts could occur as early as September [3] - Other institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, also predict further declines in the dollar index due to rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [3][4]