非农夜将至 黄金震荡偏强

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]