日本央行加息至0.5%创17年新高，通胀压力下政策分歧加剧

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a clear shift in its monetary policy, raising the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, 2025, marking the first increase since July 2024 and the largest hike since February 2007 [1] - The BOJ has adjusted its core consumer price index forecasts, increasing the 2024 fiscal year expectation from 2.5% to 2.7% and the 2025 fiscal year from 1.9% to 2.4% [1] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Tokyo's consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose by 3.1% year-on-year in June, lower than the predicted 3.3%, but still above the BOJ's 2% target [2] - The overall inflation rate decreased from 3.4% in May to 3.1% in June, marking the first slowdown in four months, primarily due to changes in energy prices [2] - Electricity prices increased by 5.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 10.8% rise, while gasoline prices fell by 1%, contrasting with a 6.3% increase the prior month [2] Group 3: Internal Policy Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the BOJ regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for maintaining ultra-low rates to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, while others focus on rising domestic inflation pressures [3] - BOJ member Takeda suggests that the bank is at a stage where it could pause rate hikes but should eventually resume the tightening cycle to maintain momentum towards price targets [3] - BOJ Governor Ueda emphasizes the necessity of pausing rate hikes due to the high uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, indicating that potential inflation remains below target levels [3]