百利好丨今晚重要数据公布，金价能否借此上扬？

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights an unexpected decrease in ADP private employment numbers for June, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the first contraction in employment since March 2023 [1][3] - The weak labor market signals that even with tariff adjustments by the Trump administration, there has been no improvement in employment conditions [1] - Following the ADP report, some economists may lower their expectations for the upcoming employment report, and traders have increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2025 [3] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has risen from approximately 20% to 27.4% after the ADP data release [3] - The ADP data, while not a perfect predictor, has shown over 70% consistency with the direction of monthly fluctuations in non-farm payrolls for 2024-2025, indicating potential downside risks for the upcoming non-farm data [3] - If the non-farm employment numbers fall below 150,000, it could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, which would be favorable for international gold prices [3] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a rebound after three consecutive trading days, surpassing the critical level of $3,308 per ounce, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are noted at $3,360 per ounce, with a breakthrough potentially moving resistance to $3,446 per ounce, while support remains at $3,308 per ounce [3] - The market strategist suggests that the ADP data reinforces expectations of a cooling job market, but actual non-farm data may exceed expectations, leading to volatile market reactions [3]