Founder Securities(SH:601901) 智通财经网·2025-07-03 08:03Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash is experiencing a significant decline, with the average market price in North China dropping by 8.0% in Q2 2025, reaching 1483 RMB/ton, and a cumulative decline of 50.2% since the beginning of 2024 [1] Price Trends - Since the beginning of 2024, soda ash prices have entered a downward trend, with the average market price in North China at 1370 RMB/ton by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 50.2% decrease from early 2024 [1] - In Q2 2025, the average price in North China was 1483 RMB/ton, down 8.0% from Q1 [1] - Coal prices have also declined, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port being 632 RMB/ton in Q2, a 12.4% decrease from Q1 [1] Profitability of Production Processes - The decline in soda ash prices has led to some production processes entering a state of reduced profitability. The dynamic gross profit margins for the main production methods as of June 2025 are approximately 415 RMB/ton for natural soda ash, -54 RMB/ton for the ammonia soda process, and -152 RMB/ton for the soda ash process [2] - In Q2 2025, the average gross profit margins for these processes were 516 RMB/ton, 15 RMB/ton, and -66 RMB/ton, respectively, indicating a significant squeeze on profitability [2] Industry Capacity and Expansion - The domestic effective capacity for soda ash in 2024 is projected to be around 39.7 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons or 4.7% year-on-year [3] - New capacity additions are still expected in 2025, including the completion of a 600,000-ton ammonia soda expansion project by Jiangsu Debang and the relocation and upgrade of a 1.1 million-ton ammonia soda facility by Lianyungang Soda Industry [3] Structural Changes in the Industry - By the end of 2024, the capacity shares for natural soda ash, ammonia soda, and soda ash processes are expected to be 15%, 49%, and 36%, respectively, with natural soda ash's share significantly increasing from 4.6% at the end of 2022 [4] - The increase in natural soda ash and ammonia soda capacity, combined with declining soda ash prices, may lead to the marginalization of some smaller ammonia soda capacities [4] - Recent policy measures emphasize the regulation of low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of outdated capacities and promote structural adjustments within the soda ash industry [4]