金荣中国：现货黄金冲高回落，继续争夺3350重要水平

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,346, having risen 0.5% on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by unexpectedly weak U.S. ADP employment data, which has heightened expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, the first net decline since early 2023, contrasting sharply with the revised increase of 29,000 jobs in May, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market [1][3] - The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with the likelihood of a July cut rising from 20% to 23% following the data release, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September nearing 100% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy landscape is adding complexity to the gold market, with a proposed tax and spending bill expected to increase debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about deficit spending and inflation [3] - Global trade dynamics are also influencing gold price volatility, as a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has alleviated some trade tension, contributing to a rise in investor risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown signs of stabilization after a recent low of $3,247, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible challenge of resistance levels at $3,383 and above [5] - In the short-term, following a rebound from the $3,247 low, bullish momentum is expanding, with prices reaching a high of $3,365 before experiencing slight pullbacks, indicating ongoing upward potential [6] - Traders are advised to monitor key support levels around $3,337 and $3,316 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,365 and $3,383 [6]