天弘基金郭相博：CXO中报确定性强，重视回调后的创新药

Core Viewpoint - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by supportive policies and a favorable investment environment, marking a significant shift from "squeezing out excess" to "promoting innovation" in the pharmaceutical industry [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 8.11%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (+5.98%) and the ChiNext Index (+4.25%) [3]. - The A-share innovation drug index increased by 21.84%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index surged by 60.27% during the same period [4]. Group 2: Policy Support and Industry Trends - The recent policy document titled "Several Measures to Support the High-Quality Development of Innovative Drugs" outlines 16 measures to support the entire chain of innovative drug development, indicating a systemic shift in policy support [2][7]. - The domestic pharmaceutical industry has undergone a transformation since the "4+7" procurement policy was implemented in 2018, leading to a fruitful period for innovative drugs in 2025 as the results of this transformation begin to materialize [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The innovation drug sector is expected to remain a key investment focus in the third quarter, with core innovative drug assets requiring attention despite potential short-term fluctuations [8]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector is anticipated to see a revenue recovery trend continuing into the second quarter of 2025, as the industry has established an order inflection point [9]. - The CRO (Contract Research Organization) and front-end innovative drug sectors are set to benefit from overseas licensing deals, which will bring incremental revenue expectations from upfront payments [10].