Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-03 10:31Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new closing records driven by major tech companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla, indicating a strong market sentiment [1] - The concentration of market capitalization among top tech firms has increased, with ten companies accounting for nearly 70% of the Nasdaq's total weight, raising concerns about potential volatility if key stocks experience valuation corrections [3] - The second quarter saw a significant decline in Tesla's delivery volume year-on-year, yet its stock price increased, highlighting the fragile nature of valuations and the potential for amplified volatility if earnings do not meet optimistic market expectations [3] Group 2 - Policy risks are creating a dual impact, with a Senate-approved tax and spending bill increasing the ten-year deficit to $3.3 trillion, while the Federal Reserve is hesitant to lower interest rates due to tariff disruptions [3] - The trade landscape remains uncertain, as the U.S. announced a 20% universal tariff while nearing deadlines for 50% tariffs on the EU, which could increase costs for tech companies and necessitate a reevaluation of market optimism [4] - Seasonal liquidity is declining as the U.S. summer holiday approaches, leading to reduced trading volumes and increased hedging, which may amplify minor negative market movements [4] Group 3 - The current market environment resembles a high-wire act, where macro expectations, policy direction, supply chain dynamics, and valuation comfort are all critical factors [4] - Investors are advised to dynamically rebalance their portfolios to mitigate potential risks from concentrated tech holdings, while also monitoring U.S. labor data and core inflation trends, which will influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5]