美银上海之行纪要：中国宏观经济进入平静期，资管与保险公司正提升股票投资占比

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Clients believe that China's growth target of around 5% is likely to be achieved due to resilient export demand, although concerns exist about a significant slowdown in exports after the summer [1] - There is a prevailing pessimism regarding the real estate market, with expectations of continued declines in housing prices and a contraction in real estate investment extending into next year [1] - Many clients anticipate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation may remain negative for the year, and there is little hope for additional policy stimulus unless economic data deteriorates rapidly [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Clients express concerns about potential escalation in trade tensions as the July 9 deadline approaches, but most believe that the peak of uncertainty has passed [2] - Despite trade uncertainties, some international clients are increasing investments in Chinese production infrastructure due to cost efficiency and product quality advantages [2] - Investors expect the USD/CNY exchange rate to remain stable, although there are notable downside risks, with many anticipating a further weakening of the dollar in the medium term [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a low-yield and low-volatility environment, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities, with some asset management firms increasing their equity allocations for better returns [3] - The upcoming QDII quota issuance allows qualified investors to expand their investments in overseas securities, with attention on potential improvements to the interconnectivity mechanism during the upcoming Bond Connect anniversary summit [3] Group 4: Views on U.S. Interest Rates - There is a divergence in client views regarding U.S. fiscal risks, with some preferring tactical trading in the middle of the yield curve while others are increasing holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 20-year bonds, due to attractive yields [5] - Clients are considering hedging duration risk as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.3% [5]